this post was submitted on 23 Jul 2023
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I guess if you include the territory that was very briefly held when Russia was making a push into Kyev, that's true, but the lines in the East have held pretty steady since the early days of the war.
Short of bringing US-style air superiority to play there, I can't see that they'll gain much in the near term.
I think the play needs to be a stalemate/slow advance until Putin dies. His successor will either accelerate or withdraw imo. Can’t bleed resources like that forever and remain in power, Putin is grandfathered in but the new guy won’t be. Unfortunately Putin could die tomorrow or in ten years. Hopefully it’s sooner than later.
Out of curiosity, what exactly are you expecting to happen when Putin dies exactly? Do you realize that Putin is basically a moderate in Russia at this point. You think somebody like Kadyrov or Medvedev is going to have a more moderate policy?
Ukraine definitely has political stability and morale as good advantages. They're also continually getting additional military support as time goes on.
Not sure there will be enough people left to fight..
True, Russia has run out of prisoners, Wagner is gone, Chechens are disengaging, Belarus is s clear "no", and the rest of the population is unwilling and getting restless.
The Kremlin is too scared to even call it a war, let alone try widespread mobilization. They saw how Prigozhin waltz into Rostov-On-Don and act like a celebrity.
I meant Ukraine but yeah I think Russia also has personnel issues.
We constantly hear that Russia has personnel issues, but I have yet to see any actual evidence of that being the case. Seems like Russian army grew significantly over the past year with the call up of reservists and a whole bunch of volunteers signing up on contract. Russia has a far bigger population and could call up a huge number of people if they needed to.
Evidence what is embedded Russian "journalists" report, e.g. there is no rotation of troops at the frontline for example.
Even if that was the case it's the same for Ukraine who have less troops suffering from poor training and equipment shortages while forced to attack well defended positions.
It's actually not the same, not even close, even according to pro-Russian sources.
You're right, it's much worse for Ukraine.
Just check out Russian sources like rybar etc., I won 't discuss this any further with pre-mature wannabe tankies
Nah, I check sources like WSJ, The Economist, and The Telegraph, all rabidly pro Ukrainian. You're right thought that there's no point having a discussion with someone like you